Serie B · Regular Season - 31
Botafogo SP0–1Vila Nova
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie B
- Venue
- Estadio Santa Cruz
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 45′
Cards
- 27′Marquinhos GabrielYellow CardVila NovaArgument
- 70′HaynerYellow CardVila NovaTime wasting
- 73′João VieiraYellow CardVila NovaFoul
- 74′Leandro MacielYellow CardBotafogo SPFoul
- 79′Ericson da SilvaYellow CardBotafogo SPFoul
Events updated
Lineups
Botafogo SP
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: Tencati Claudio
Starting XI
- 1Victor SouzaG
- 31Pedro HenriqueD
- 3EricsonD
- 4VilarD
- 6Patrick BreyD
- 5Leandro MacielM
- 30Ze HugoM
- 8Everton MorelliM
- 10Rafael GavaM
- 16Matheus SalesM
- 9HygorF
Substitutes
- 12JordanG
- 2JonathanD
- 22Gabriel Inocencio
- 21JadsonF
- 27DarlanD
- 26Felipe VieiraD
- 20Yuri FelipeM
- 29Thiago MoraesM
- 18Arthur CaikeF
- 17Guilherme QueirozF
- 7KelvinF
- 23Wesley SantosF
Vila Nova
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Ferreira Guto
Starting XI
- 1Helton LeiteG
- 22HaynerD
- 4Douglas MendesD
- 3Tiago PagnussatD
- 6HigorD
- 5Joao VieiraM
- 15DuduM
- 17Everton GaldinoM
- 10Marquinhos GabrielM
- 99JandersonM
- 7Andre LuisF
Substitutes
- 29DalbersonG
- 13Willian FormigaD
- 14Anderson JesusD
- 33Bruno XavierM
- 8Willian MaranhaoM
- 20Nathan CamargoM
- 21Higor MeritaoM
- 11Ryan
- 31DodoM
- 9LincolnF
- 70Emerson UrsoF
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova: match review and analysis
Botafogo SP vs Vila Nova in Serie B on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Botafogo SP recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Vila Nova recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 16 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Botafogo SP | Vila Nova |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Botafogo SP: (1.10 weighted goals scored + 0.84 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.97 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Vila Nova: (1.41 weighted goals scored + 1.54 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.48 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Botafogo SP recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponte PretaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GoiasSerie B | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| NovorizontinoSerie B | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Nautico RecifeSerie B | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CuiabaSerie B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atletico GoianienseSerie B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CriciumaSerie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| São BernardoSerie B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| America MineiroSerie B | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Botafogo SP’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Vila Nova recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LondrinaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| America MineiroSerie B | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| AvaiSerie B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GoiasSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Athletic ClubSerie B | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| CearaSerie B | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Operario-PRSerie B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ponte PretaSerie B | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| Atletico GoianienseSerie B | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Sport RecifeSerie B | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Vila Nova’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie B — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Vila Nova are ranked 2 in Serie B, with 58 points from 32 games.
Botafogo SP are ranked 16 in Serie B, with 38 points from 32 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventude | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 59 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 58 |
| 3 | Fortaleza EC | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 37 | 27 | 10 | 56 |
| 4 | Novorizontino | 31 | 15 | 9 | 7 | 52 | 27 | 25 | 54 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 53 |
| 6 | Atletico Goianiense | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 40 | 30 | 10 | 52 |
| 7 | CRB | 32 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 51 |
| 8 | Sport Recife | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 50 |
| 9 | Operario-PR | 32 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 48 |
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 47 |
| 11 | Goias | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 32 | 40 | -8 | 45 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 44 | 34 | 10 | 45 |
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | 1 | 42 |
| 14 | Athletic Club | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 |
| 15 | Ceara | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 39 |
| 16 | Botafogo SP | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 38 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 33 |
| 18 | Londrina | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 28 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 32 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 53 | -32 | 17 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 32 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 68 | -51 | 13 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.