First League · Regular Season - 11
Botev VratsavsSpartak Varna
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- Hristo Botev Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: match review and analysis
Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna in First League on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Botev Vratsa recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 20. Spartak Varna recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 10 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Botev Vratsa | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Botev Vratsa: (0.90 weighted goals scored + 1.57 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Spartak Varna: (0.81 weighted goals scored + 1.75 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Botev Vratsa recent form
0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slavia SofiaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Dunav RuseFirst League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Levski SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Septemvri SofiaFirst League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Arda KardzhaliFirst League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| LudogoretsFirst League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Botev Vratsa’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Spartak Varna recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LudogoretsFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Levski SofiaFirst League | Away | 0–6 | Lost | |
| Septemvri SofiaFirst League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cherno More VarnaFirst League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Spartak Varna’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Spartak Varna are ranked 8 in A PFG, with 10 points from 10 games.
Botev Vratsa are ranked 9 in A PFG, with 9 points from 10 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 25 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 23 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Arda Kardzhali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Botev Plovdiv | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Slavia Sofia | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Varna | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 10 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 9 |
| 10 | Septemvri Sofia | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 7 |
| 13 | Cherno More Varna | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Dunav Ruse | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.