Brechin3–2Buckie Thistle

Real Scored match analysis

Brechin vs Buckie Thistle: match review and analysis

Brechin vs Buckie Thistle in FA Cup on 3 October 2026 has finished after a penalty shootout. The match goal score was 3–2, excluding shootout kicks. Review the team form and league context below.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.

Brechin recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Buckie Thistle recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 28 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Brechin: (2.08 weighted goals scored + 1.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.90 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Buckie Thistle: (2.43 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.74 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.