Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6
Burgos PromesasvsUD Santa Marta
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta: match review and analysis
Burgos Promesas vs UD Santa Marta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Burgos Promesas recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 8. UD Santa Marta recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses, with 13 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Burgos Promesas | UD Santa Marta |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 6 |
| Draws | 2 | 1 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 8 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Burgos Promesas: (1.47 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.30 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
UD Santa Marta: (1.27 weighted goals scored + 0.67 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.97 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Burgos Promesas recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirandés IITercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cultural Leonesa IITercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Palencia CFTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Colegios DiocesanosTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| VillaralboTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real Valladolid IISegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Salamanca UDSSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Atlético AstorgaSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CoruxoSegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Deportivo La Coruña IISegunda División RFEF - Group 1 | Home | 1–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Burgos Promesas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
UD Santa Marta recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cultural Leonesa IITercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Salamanca UDSCopa Federacion | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Palencia CFTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Colegios DiocesanosTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| BergantiñosCopa Federacion | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| VillaralboTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| VimenorCopa Federacion | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ArandinaTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Atlético TordesillasFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GuijueloTercera División RFEF - Group 8 | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from UD Santa Marta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Burgos Promesas are ranked 1 in Tercera: Group 8, with 13 points from 5 games.
UD Santa Marta are ranked 2 in Tercera: Group 8, with 12 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Burgos Promesas | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 2 | UD Santa Marta | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Atlético Mansillés | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Bembibre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 5 | Cristo Atlético | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Cultural Leonesa II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | La Virgen del Camino | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | Arandina | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Almazán | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 |
| 10 | Palencia CF | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Calasanz de Soria | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
| 12 | Villaralbo | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Salamanca II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Guijuelo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 15 | Turégano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | Unionistas II | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 2 |
| 17 | Mirandés II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 1 |
| 18 | Colegios Diocesanos | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.