Ligue 3 · Regular Season - 10
CaenvsLa Roche VF
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 15 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ligue 3
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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RealScored match analysis
Caen vs La Roche VF: match review and analysis
Caen vs La Roche VF in Ligue 3 on 15 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Caen recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 13. La Roche VF recorded 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses, with 16 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Caen | La Roche VF |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 16 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Caen: (1.80 weighted goals scored + 0.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.31 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
La Roche VF: (1.59 weighted goals scored + 1.29 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Caen recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleury 91Ligue 3 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| RouenLigue 3 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| ConcarneauLigue 3 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| GobelinsLigue 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| BastiaLigue 3 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AubagneLigue 3 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Thionville LusitanosLigue 3 | Away | 3–4 | Lost | |
| ValenciennesLigue 3 | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| DieppeFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Caen’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
La Roche VF recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AubagneLigue 3 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Thionville LusitanosLigue 3 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| ValenciennesLigue 3 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| VillefrancheLigue 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| QuevillyLigue 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| OrleansLigue 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| CannesLigue 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AmiensLigue 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| VersaillesLigue 3 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| NantesFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from La Roche VF’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ligue 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
La Roche VF are ranked 1 in National, with 21 points from 9 games.
Caen are ranked 7 in National, with 15 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.