FAW Championship · South - 11
Caerphilly AthleticvsNewport City
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FAW Championship
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Lineups
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Real Scored match analysis
Caerphilly Athletic vs Newport City: match review and analysis
Caerphilly Athletic vs Newport City in FAW Championship on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Caerphilly Athletic recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 20. Newport City recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 10 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Caerphilly Athletic | Newport City |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 20 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Caerphilly Athletic: (1.14 weighted goals scored + 1.21 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Newport City: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 2.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.56 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Caerphilly Athletic recent form
1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea UniversityFAW Championship | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Pontypridd TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Aberystwyth TownFAW Championship | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Trethomas BluebirdsFAW Championship | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Baglan DragonsFAW Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Ynyshir AlbionsFAW Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Treowen StarsFAW Championship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Cardiff DraconiansFAW Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Pontardawe TownFAW Championship | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Caldicot TownWelsh Cup | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Caerphilly Athletic’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Newport City recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff DraconiansFAW Championship | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Afan LidoFAW Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ynyshir AlbionsFAW Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Baglan DragonsFAW Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Pontardawe TownFAW Championship | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Carmarthen TownFAW Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| llanelli AFCFAW Championship | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Newport CountyFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–5 | Lost | |
| Cambrian & ClydachFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| TrefelinFAW Championship | Home | 0–5 | Lost |
Scores shown from Newport City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FAW Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Newport City are ranked 12 in South, with 8 points from 7 games.
Caerphilly Athletic are ranked 14 in South, with 8 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea University | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 20 |
| 2 | Aberystwyth Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 8 | 14 | 19 |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 18 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Baglan Dragons | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Carmarthen Town | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Ynyshir Albions | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 13 |
| 8 | Treowen Stars | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Afan Lido | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 10 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Pontardawe Town | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Newport City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Cardiff Draconians | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 | Caerphilly Athletic | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Llantwit Major | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 7 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 2 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 6 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Newtown AFC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 22 |
| 3 | Porthmadog | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Bala Town | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 19 |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 10 | 18 |
| 6 | Caersws | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 17 |
| 8 | Guilsfield | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Buckley Town | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 17 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Llanuwchllyn | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 23 | -10 | 11 |
| 11 | Rhyl | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 10 |
| 12 | Ruthin Town | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 8 |
| 13 | Denbigh Town | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Holyhead Hotspur | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Gresford Athletic | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 7 |
| 16 | Penrhyncoch | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 30 | -26 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.