Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 6
CasalarreinavsAlfaro
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 16
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Casalarreina vs Alfaro: match review and analysis
Casalarreina vs Alfaro in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Casalarreina recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Alfaro recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Casalarreina | Alfaro |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 1 |
| Losses | 5 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Casalarreina: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Alfaro: (1.50 weighted goals scored + 2.02 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.76 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Casalarreina recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CalasancioTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| AgoncilloTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–5 | Lost | |
| OyonesaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| La CalzadaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PradejónTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| La CalzadaTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| AutolTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| TedeónTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| River EbroTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| VianésTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Casalarreina’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Alfaro recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CalahorraTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AnguianoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Haro DeportivoTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| YagüeTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CalasancioTercera División RFEF - Group 16 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Real UniónSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SD LogroñésSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| NáxaraSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| TudelanoSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Real Zaragoza IISegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Alfaro’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Alfaro are ranked 4 in Tercera: Group 16, with 10 points from 5 games.
Casalarreina are ranked 17 in Tercera: Group 16, with 3 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haro Deportivo | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Berceo | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 12 |
| 3 | La Calzada | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Alfaro | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Pradejón | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Calahorra | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Agoncillo | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | Varea | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | San Marcial | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Yagüe | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Cenicero | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Anguiano | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 13 | Oyonesa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Comillas | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Calasancio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | River Ebro | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Casalarreina | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 3 |
| 18 | Vianés | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.