Serie D - Girone D · Group D - 7
CastellanzesevsArconatese
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone D
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Castellanzese vs Arconatese: match review and analysis
Castellanzese vs Arconatese in Serie D - Girone D on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Castellanzese recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 13. Arconatese recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 11 scored and 23 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Castellanzese | Arconatese |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 23 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 10 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Castellanzese: (1.97 weighted goals scored + 2.35 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.16 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Arconatese: (0.89 weighted goals scored + 1.14 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Castellanzese recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CremaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| SolbiateseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| OltrepòSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LentigioneSerie D - Girone D | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PontederaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| VaresinaSerie D - Girone B | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Virtus Ciserano BergamoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Milan IISerie D - Girone B | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Castellanzese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Arconatese recent form
1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pro SestoSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PaviaSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Pro PatriaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PistoieseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 0–5 | Lost | |
| CorreggeseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| USD CasateseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| BrenoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sangiuliano CitySerie D - Girone B | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FanfullaSerie D - Girone B | Home | 4–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Arconatese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone D — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Castellanzese are ranked 5 in Serie D: Group D, with 12 points from 6 games.
Arconatese are ranked 16 in Serie D: Group D, with 3 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 18 |
| 2 | Pro Sesto | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Pro Patria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Castellanzese | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | USD Casatese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Correggese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Pavia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Città di Varese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Varesina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Solbiatese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crema | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.