Primera Premier · Regular Season - 6
Celaya0–1Jaguares de Chiapas
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera Premier
- Venue
- Estadio Miguel Aleman Valdes
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 4′B. NavarreteNormal GoalJaguares de Chiapas
Cards
No cards in the latest saved events.
Events updated
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Celaya vs Jaguares de Chiapas: match review and analysis
Celaya vs Jaguares de Chiapas in Primera Premier on 6 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Celaya recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 9. Jaguares de Chiapas recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 13 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Celaya | Jaguares de Chiapas |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Celaya: (2.08 weighted goals scored + 1.51 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Jaguares de Chiapas: (1.00 weighted goals scored + 0.90 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.95 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Celaya recent form
2.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportiva VenadosPrimera Premier | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MontañesesPrimera Premier | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ChapulinerosPrimera Premier | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TapachulaPrimera Premier | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Pioneros de CancúnPrimera Premier | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| CimarronesLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| CimarronesLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Leones NegrosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Leones NegrosLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Jaguares de ChiapasLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Celaya’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Jaguares de Chiapas recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Racing de VeracruzPrimera Premier | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Deportiva VenadosPrimera Premier | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MontañesesPrimera Premier | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ChapulinerosPrimera Premier | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| CelayaLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ChapulinerosLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Racing de VeracruzLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| TapachulaLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Deportiva VenadosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| NezaLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 6–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Jaguares de Chiapas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera Premier — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Celaya are ranked 2 in Regular Season, with 13 points from 6 games.
Jaguares de Chiapas are ranked 9 in Regular Season, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | Celaya | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Racing de Veracruz | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 11 |
| 5 | Tigres de Alica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Zacatepec 1948 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Reboceros La Piedad | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Los Cabos United | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Montañeses | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Deportiva Venados | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Chapulineros | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 13 | Cordobés | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Lobos ULMX | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Tapachula | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 14 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Tritons Vallarta | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 18 | H2O Purepechas | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.