Premijer Liga · Regular Season - 9
ČelikvsFK Sarajevo
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premijer Liga
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo: match review and analysis
Čelik vs FK Sarajevo in Premijer Liga on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Čelik recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 13. FK Sarajevo recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 10 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Čelik | FK Sarajevo |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 10 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Čelik: (1.77 weighted goals scored + 0.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
FK Sarajevo: (1.18 weighted goals scored + 1.31 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Čelik recent form
1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Sloga DobojPremijer Liga | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VeležPremijer Liga | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| ZrinjskiPremijer Liga | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Zvijezda 09Friendlies Clubs | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Zvijezda GradačacFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Čelik’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
FK Sarajevo recent form
1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornji RahićFriendlies Clubs | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Sloga DobojPremijer Liga | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| VeležPremijer Liga | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Zeljeznicar SarajevoPremijer Liga | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| ZrinjskiPremijer Liga | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| BSK Banja LukaPremijer Liga | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Radnik BijeljinaPremijer Liga | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Inter TurkuUEFA Europa Conference League | Away | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from FK Sarajevo’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premijer Liga — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
FK Sarajevo are ranked 3 in Premier Liga, with 13 points from 8 games.
Čelik are ranked 7 in Premier Liga, with 8 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zrinjski | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Zeljeznicar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.