III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 12
Chełmianka ChełmvsStar Starachowice
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- III Liga - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice: match review and analysis
Chełmianka Chełm vs Star Starachowice in III Liga - Group 4 on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Chełmianka Chełm recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 5. Star Starachowice recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 11 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Chełmianka Chełm | Star Starachowice |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 0 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 5 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Chełmianka Chełm: (1.61 weighted goals scored + 1.36 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.48 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Star Starachowice: (1.16 weighted goals scored + 0.64 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.90 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Chełmianka Chełm recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hetman ZamoscIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Podlasie Biała PodlaskaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| KSZO 1929III Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Siarka TarnobrzegIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Wisła Kraków IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| KS Wieczysta Krakow IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| NaprzódIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Wisłoka DębicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Moravia MorawicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Sokół Kolb.III Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Chełmianka Chełm’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Star Starachowice recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Podlasie Biała PodlaskaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Siarka TarnobrzegIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| KS Wieczysta Krakow IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Wisłoka DębicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Sokół Kolb.III Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| JarosławIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Busko-ZdrojIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Czarni PołaniecIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Hetman ZamoscIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| KSZO 1929III Liga - Group 4 | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Star Starachowice’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
III Liga - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Chełmianka Chełm are ranked 1 in Group IV, with 27 points from 11 games.
Star Starachowice are ranked 15 in Group IV, with 11 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 20 |
| 6 | Jarosław | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.