Chesham United4–3Real Bedford

Real Scored match analysis

Chesham United vs Real Bedford: match review and analysis

Chesham United vs Real Bedford in FA Cup on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–3. Review the team form and league context below.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.

Chesham United recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 18. Real Bedford recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses, with 29 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Chesham United: (2.46 weighted goals scored + 1.34 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.90 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Real Bedford: (2.73 weighted goals scored + 2.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.38 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.