Ligue 3 · Regular Season - 10
ConcarneauvsBastia
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 17 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ligue 3
- Venue
- Stade Guy Piriou
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Concarneau vs Bastia: match review and analysis
Concarneau vs Bastia in Ligue 3 on 17 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Concarneau recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 17 and conceding 9. Bastia recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 8 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Concarneau | Bastia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 17 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Concarneau: (1.75 weighted goals scored + 1.01 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.38 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bastia: (0.76 weighted goals scored + 0.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.82 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Concarneau recent form
1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GobelinsLigue 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CaenLigue 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| AubagneLigue 3 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Thionville LusitanosLigue 3 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ValenciennesLigue 3 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VillefrancheLigue 3 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| QuevillyLigue 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| OrleansLigue 3 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Pontivy GSIFriendlies Clubs | Home | 5–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Concarneau’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Bastia recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OrleansLigue 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| GobelinsLigue 3 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CannesLigue 3 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Bourg-en-bresse 01Ligue 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| AmiensLigue 3 | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| CaenLigue 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| VersaillesLigue 3 | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| AubagneLigue 3 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Le Puy FootLigue 3 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| AubagneFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Bastia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ligue 3 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Concarneau are ranked 3 in National, with 16 points from 9 games.
Bastia are ranked 12 in National, with 11 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roche VF | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Rouen | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Concarneau | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Versailles | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 16 |
| 5 | Amiens | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 6 | Cannes | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 15 |
| 7 | Caen | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 9 | Thionville Lusitanos | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Fleury 91 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | Bastia | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Quevilly | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 7 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 5 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 22 | -15 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.