Primera División · Regular Season - 24
ConcepciónvsUnion La Calera
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División
- Venue
- Estadio Municipal Ester Roa Concepcion
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Concepción vs Union La Calera: match review and analysis
Concepción vs Union La Calera in Primera División on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Concepción recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Union La Calera recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 9 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Concepción | Union La Calera |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Concepción: (1.07 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Union La Calera: (0.80 weighted goals scored + 0.69 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.75 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Concepción recent form
1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O'HigginsCopa Chile | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| O'HigginsCopa Chile | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Curico UnidoCopa Chile | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Curico UnidoCopa Chile | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Colo ColoPrimera División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| A. ItalianoPrimera División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| NublensePrimera División | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Coquimbo UnidoPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CobresalPrimera División | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Universidad de ConcepcionPrimera División | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Concepción’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Union La Calera recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U. CatolicaCopa Chile | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| U. CatolicaCopa Chile | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Deportes LimachePrimera División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| O'HigginsPrimera División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| D. La SerenaPrimera División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| A. ItalianoPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| NublensePrimera División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Colo ColoPrimera División | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Santiago WanderersCopa Chile | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| CobresalPrimera División | Away | 0–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Union La Calera’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Concepción are ranked 8 in Primera División, with 31 points from 23 games.
Union La Calera are ranked 16 in Primera División, with 17 points from 23 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colo Colo | 23 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 54 |
| 2 | U. Catolica | 23 | 13 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 42 |
| 3 | Universidad de Chile | 23 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 42 |
| 4 | Everton de Vina | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Palestino | 23 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 36 |
| 6 | Deportes Limache | 23 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Nublense | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Concepción | 23 | 9 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 26 | -1 | 31 |
| 9 | D. La Serena | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 30 |
| 10 | Coquimbo Unido | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 29 |
| 11 | A. Italiano | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 28 |
| 12 | Huachipato | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 39 | -8 | 28 |
| 13 | O'Higgins | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 23 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 24 |
| 15 | Universidad de Concepcion | 23 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 39 | -22 | 22 |
| 16 | Union La Calera | 23 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 40 | -21 | 17 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.