Serie D - Girone D · Group D - 6
Correggese2–1Pavia
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Serie D - Girone D
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Correggese vs Pavia: match review and analysis
Correggese vs Pavia in Serie D - Girone D on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Correggese recorded 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 9. Pavia recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 7 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Correggese | Pavia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 2 |
| Draws | 5 | 4 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Correggese: (1.15 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.26 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Pavia: (0.59 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.81 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Correggese recent form
1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella Vis ModenaSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| USD CasateseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| VaresinaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| ArconateseSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Pro SestoSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CremaSerie D - Girone D | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TreviglieseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ProgressoSerie D - Girone D | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Correggese’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Pavia recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ArconateseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Sant'AngeloSerie D - Girone D | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SolbiateseSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| CremaSerie D - Girone D | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| AlbinoleffeFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| PisaFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–6 | Lost | |
| BrenoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ChievoSerie D - Girone B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Virtus Ciserano BergamoSerie D - Girone B | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| USD CasateseSerie D - Girone B | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Pavia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Serie D - Girone D — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Correggese are ranked 8 in Serie D: Group D, with 10 points from 6 games.
Pavia are ranked 10 in Serie D: Group D, with 7 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pistoiese | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1 | 16 | 18 |
| 2 | Pro Sesto | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 3 | Pro Patria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Lentigione | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Castellanzese | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 |
| 6 | Cittadella Vis Modena | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | USD Casatese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| 8 | Correggese | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 10 |
| 9 | Sant'Angelo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Pavia | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | Città di Varese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Varesina | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Solbiatese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 5 |
| 14 | Coriano | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Crema | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Arconatese | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Oltrepò | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Pontedera | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.