League Two · Regular Season - 9
Crewe3–1Bristol Rovers
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- League Two
- Venue
- Alexandra Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–1
- 90-minute score
- 3–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Crewe vs Bristol Rovers: match review and analysis
Crewe vs Bristol Rovers in League Two on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Crewe recorded 3 wins, 6 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 14 and conceding 10. Bristol Rovers recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 15 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Crewe | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 1 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 14 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Crewe: (1.59 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.51 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Bristol Rovers: (1.21 weighted goals scored + 1.03 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.12 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Crewe recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RotherhamLeague Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Aston Villa U21EFL Trophy | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| ShrewsburyLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ColchesterLeague Two | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| YorkLeague Two | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WalsallLeague Two | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Port ValeLeague Two | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| BarnsleyLeague Cup | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| NorthamptonLeague Two | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Crawley TownLeague Two | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Crewe’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Bristol Rovers recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter CityLeague Two | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GillinghamLeague Two | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| GrimsbyLeague Two | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| RotherhamLeague Two | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| ColchesterLeague Two | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Crawley TownLeague Two | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Chelsea U21EFL Trophy | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Newport CountyLeague Two | Home | 5–3 | Won | |
| YorkLeague Two | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| PeterboroughLeague Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Bristol Rovers’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
League Two — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Crewe are ranked 3 in League Two, with 15 points from 9 games.
Bristol Rovers are ranked 5 in League Two, with 15 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Barnet | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Crewe | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 | Cheltenham | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Bristol Rovers | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | York | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Walsall | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Chesterfield | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Grimsby | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Gillingham | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Rochdale | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Tranmere | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 11 |
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Newport County | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 16 | Accrington ST | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 17 | Rotherham | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 |
| 18 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10 |
| 19 | Colchester | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 20 | Exeter City | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 9 |
| 21 | Oldham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 22 | Northampton | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 6 |
| 23 | Port Vale | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.