Primera División · Clausura - 9
Danubio2–1Cerro Largo
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera División
- Venue
- Gardens of the Hippodrome
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Danubio vs Cerro Largo: match review and analysis
Danubio vs Cerro Largo in Primera División on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Danubio recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 6 and conceding 13. Cerro Largo recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, with 7 scored and 12 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Danubio | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 1 |
| Draws | 5 | 5 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 6 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 12 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Danubio: (0.67 weighted goals scored + 1.26 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Cerro Largo: (0.63 weighted goals scored + 1.40 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.01 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Danubio recent form
0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor SportingPrimera División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| PenarolCopa Uruguay | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WanderersPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| JuventudPrimera División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| PenarolPrimera División | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Atletico TorqueCopa Uruguay | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ProgresoPrimera División | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| AtenasCopa Uruguay | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Racing MontevideoPrimera División | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Boston RiverPrimera División | Away | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Danubio’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Cerro Largo recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RentistasCopa Uruguay | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Club NacionalPrimera División | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo MaldonadoPrimera División | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Central EspanolPrimera División | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Defensor SportingCopa Uruguay | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Atletico TorquePrimera División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Liverpool MontevideoPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Plaza ColoniaCopa Uruguay | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Defensor SportingPrimera División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| WanderersPrimera División | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Cerro Largo’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera División — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Cerro Largo are ranked 12 in Primera: Tabla Anual, with 33 points from 31 games.
Danubio are ranked 15 in Primera: Tabla Anual, with 29 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 31 | 19 | 6 | 6 | 50 | 25 | 25 | 62 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 58 |
| 3 | Atletico Torque | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 37 | 15 | 54 |
| 4 | Racing Montevideo | 31 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 11 | 53 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 47 | 38 | 9 | 52 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 50 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 42 | 30 | 12 | 49 |
| 8 | Central Espanol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 38 |
| 9 | Albion FC | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 37 |
| 10 | Juventud | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 37 |
| 11 | Defensor Sporting | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 35 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 33 |
| 13 | Cerro | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 45 | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Boston River | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 29 | 42 | -13 | 31 |
| 15 | Danubio | 31 | 5 | 14 | 12 | 26 | 40 | -14 | 29 |
| 16 | Progreso | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 28 |
Cerro Largo are ranked 11 in Primera: Promedios, with 82 points from 68 games.
Danubio are ranked 15 in Primera: Promedios, with 72 points from 68 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 68 | 43 | 12 | 13 | 116 | 59 | 57 | 141 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 68 | 40 | 14 | 14 | 123 | 71 | 52 | 131 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 58 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 68 | 31 | 21 | 16 | 93 | 67 | 26 | 114 |
| 5 | Racing Montevideo | 68 | 28 | 22 | 18 | 75 | 63 | 12 | 106 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 68 | 29 | 16 | 23 | 106 | 88 | 18 | 103 |
| 7 | Juventud | 68 | 27 | 17 | 24 | 80 | 78 | 2 | 98 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 68 | 26 | 18 | 24 | 70 | 74 | -4 | 96 |
| 9 | Boston River | 68 | 22 | 20 | 26 | 79 | 81 | -2 | 86 |
| 10 | Central Espanol | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 38 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 68 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 70 | 77 | -7 | 82 |
| 12 | Wanderers | 68 | 20 | 21 | 27 | 65 | 83 | -18 | 81 |
| 13 | Albion FC | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 37 |
| 14 | Cerro | 68 | 21 | 17 | 30 | 56 | 87 | -31 | 79 |
| 15 | Danubio | 68 | 15 | 27 | 26 | 67 | 81 | -14 | 72 |
| 16 | Progreso | 68 | 18 | 13 | 37 | 65 | 106 | -41 | 67 |
Cerro Largo are ranked 2 in Primera: Torneo Intermedio, with 11 points from 7 games.
Danubio are ranked 8 in Primera: Torneo Intermedio, with 4 points from 7 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 1 | Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Atletico Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 12 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 5 | Juventud | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 8 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 7 | Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
Danubio are ranked 11 in Primera: Apertura, with 18 points from 15 games.
Cerro Largo are ranked 12 in Primera: Apertura, with 17 points from 15 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 14 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Deportivo Maldonado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 29 |
| 3 | Albion FC | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 28 |
| 4 | Penarol | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 27 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 24 |
| 6 | Atletico Torque | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 16 | 6 | 23 |
| 7 | Club Nacional | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 22 |
| 8 | Defensor Sporting | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Liverpool Montevideo | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Wanderers | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 20 |
| 11 | Danubio | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Cerro Largo | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Boston River | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 17 |
| 14 | Juventud | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 15 |
| 15 | Progreso | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 10 |
| 16 | Cerro | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 10 |
Danubio are ranked 13 in Primera: Clausura, with 7 points from 9 games.
Cerro Largo are ranked 14 in Primera: Clausura, with 5 points from 9 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool Montevideo | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Atletico Torque | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 3 | Penarol | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 19 |
| 4 | Deportivo Maldonado | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Wanderers | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Juventud | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Cerro | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Racing Montevideo | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 10 | Progreso | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Boston River | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Defensor Sporting | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Danubio | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Central Espanol | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 5 |
| 16 | Albion FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 3 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.