Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5
Derio2–0Beasain
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–0
- 90-minute score
- 2–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Derio vs Beasain: match review and analysis
Derio vs Beasain in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Derio recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Beasain recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 13 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Derio | Beasain |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Derio: (1.16 weighted goals scored + 1.39 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Beasain: (1.07 weighted goals scored + 1.19 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.13 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Derio recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AretxabaletaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| SanturtziTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Salamanca UDSCopa Federacion | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| San IgnacioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CompostelaCopa Federacion | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Real Sociedad IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sestao RiverFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Athletic ClubFriendlies Clubs | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| LeioaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LeioaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Derio’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Beasain recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DurangoTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TouringTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| AretxabaletaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SanturtziTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Lagun OnakFriendlies Clubs | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Valle EgüésFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| TouringFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Real Zaragoza IISegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| NáxaraSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| UD LogroñésSegunda División RFEF - Group 2 | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Beasain’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Derio are ranked 2 in Tercera: Group 4, with 11 points from 5 games.
Beasain are ranked 16 in Tercera: Group 4, with 4 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.