Premier Division · Regular Season - 33
Derry CityvsSt Patrick's Athl.
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier Division
- Venue
- The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl.: match review and analysis
Derry City vs St Patrick's Athl. in Premier Division on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Derry City recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 15. St Patrick's Athl. recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 15 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Derry City | St Patrick's Athl. |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Derry City: (1.98 weighted goals scored + 0.49 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.24 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
St Patrick's Athl.: (1.70 weighted goals scored + 1.41 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.55 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Derry City recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway UnitedPremier Division | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| WaterfordPremier Division | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ShelbournePremier Division | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| DundalkFAI Cup | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Shamrock RoversPremier Division | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| BohemiansPremier Division | Away | 3–5 | Lost | |
| UCDFAI Cup | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sligo RoversPremier Division | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| St Patrick's Athl.Premier Division | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| HNK RijekaUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Derry City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
St Patrick's Athl. recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sligo RoversPremier Division | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| DundalkPremier Division | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| Shamrock RoversPremier Division | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| BohemiansFAI Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| WaterfordPremier Division | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Drogheda UnitedPremier Division | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Shamrock RoversFAI Cup | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ShelbournePremier Division | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Derry CityPremier Division | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DundalkPremier Division | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from St Patrick's Athl.’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier Division — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
St Patrick's Athl. are ranked 1 in Premier Division, with 59 points from 32 games.
Derry City are ranked 4 in Premier Division, with 41 points from 32 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athl. | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52 | 25 | 27 | 59 |
| 2 | Bohemians | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 59 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.