Liga Premier Serie A · Apertura - 6
Dragones de Oaxaca3–2Real Refineros
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 5 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga Premier Serie A
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–2
- 90-minute score
- 3–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros: match review and analysis
Dragones de Oaxaca vs Real Refineros in Liga Premier Serie A on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Dragones de Oaxaca recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 11. Real Refineros recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses, with 7 scored and 7 conceded across 5 games.
| Statistic | Dragones de Oaxaca | Real Refineros |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 5 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 7 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 3 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Dragones de Oaxaca: (2.07 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.75 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Real Refineros: (1.52 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.30 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Dragones de Oaxaca recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delfines CoatzacoalcosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Cañoneros MarinaLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| AcambaroLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Halcones NegrosLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CiervosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Poza RicaLiga Premier Serie B | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Poza RicaLiga Premier Serie B | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Aguacateros CDULiga Premier Serie B | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Poza RicaLiga Premier Serie B | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| AcambaroLiga Premier Serie B | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Dragones de Oaxaca’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 5 GAMES
Real Refineros recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 3 of 5 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CiervosLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Delfines CoatzacoalcosLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Calor de San PedroLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Cañoneros MarinaLiga Premier Serie A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Artesanos MetepecLiga Premier Serie A | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Real Refineros’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 5 usable previous results were available.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga Premier Serie A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Dragones de Oaxaca are ranked 2 in Liga Premier Serie A, with 15 points from 6 games.
Real Refineros are ranked 8 in Liga Premier Serie A, with 7 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| 1 | Artesanos Metepec | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 2 | Acatlan | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 15 |
| 3 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 3 | Halcones Negros | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 10 |
| 4 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| 4 | Acambaro | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 8 |
| 6 | Atlético Saltillo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Santiago | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 8 |
| 8 | Guerreros | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 4 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 19 | -16 | 2 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 19 | -18 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.