Kirin Cup · 3rd place
Ecuador1–1Panama
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Kirin Cup
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 38′Josue VergaraNormal GoalPanama
- 58′
- 92′Amir MurilloPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 93′Pedro VitePenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 93′Carlos HarveyPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 94′Anthony ValenciaMissed PenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 95′Víctor GriffithMissed PenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 96′John YeboahPenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 97′Tomás RodríguezPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 97′Nilson AnguloPenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 98′Rafael MosqueraPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 99′Keny arroyoPenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 100′César BlackmanPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 100′Willian PachoPenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 101′Dilan HerbertPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 102′Fricio CaicedoPenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
- 102′Deivis MurilloPenaltyPanamaPenalty Shootout
- 103′Juan Riquelme AnguloMissed PenaltyEcuadorPenalty Shootout
Cards
- 44′Adalberto CarrasquillaYellow CardPanamaFoul
- 55′Fricio CaicedoYellow CardEcuadorFoul
- 70′Martín Wilhelm KrugYellow CardPanamaFoul
- 81′Carlos HarveyYellow CardPanamaFoul
- 89′César BlackmanYellow CardPanamaFoul
- 90+5′Víctor GriffithYellow CardPanamaFoul
Events updated
Lineups
Ecuador
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: M. Gallardo
Starting XI
- 22G. ValleG
- 17A. PreciadoD
- 24L. RealpeD
- 2F. TorresD
- 3F. CaicedoD
- 8A. ValenciaF
- 5J. AlcívarM
- 23J. MercadoF
- 16J. SarmientoM
- 14A. MindaF
- 9J. CaicedoF
Substitutes
- 19J. HurtadoD
- 13J. AnguloF
- 6W. PachoD
- 1H. GalíndezG
- 21A. FrancoM
- 25J. PorozoD
- 12M. RamírezG
- 15P. ViteM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 16D. CastilloM
- 11K. ArroyoM
- 20N. AnguloM
Panama
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Thomas Christiansen
Starting XI
- 12E. RobertsG
- 4M. KrugD
- 2C. BlackmanD
- 14C. HarveyM
- 23A. MurilloD
- 6Cristian Jesús MartínezM
- 5V. GriffithM
- 15J. GutiérrezD
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 7J. RodríguezM
- 18J. Y. Vergara OrtegaF
Substitutes
- 22O. MosqueraG
- 19O. ValenciaD
- 9T. RodríguezF
- 13J. RamosD
- 26D. MurilloM
- 10R. MosqueraF
- 24E. AndersonD
- 12M. De LeonG
- 17J. FajardoF
- 26A. HerbertM
- 21M. JimenezF
- 11A. LondoñoM
- 25J. JonesD
- 27J. ModeloD
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Ecuador vs Panama: match review and analysis
Ecuador vs Panama in Kirin Cup on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Ecuador recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Panama recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 12 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ecuador | Panama |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ecuador: (0.89 weighted goals scored + 1.62 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.25 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Panama: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 0.98 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ecuador recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JapanKirin Cup | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| South KoreaFriendlies | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| MexicoWorld Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| GermanyWorld Cup | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CuraçaoWorld Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Ivory CoastWorld Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GuatemalaFriendlies | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Saudi ArabiaFriendlies | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| NetherlandsFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MoroccoFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ecuador’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Panama recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New ZealandKirin Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| IndiaFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| EnglandWorld Cup | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CroatiaWorld Cup | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| GhanaWorld Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Bosnia & HerzegovinaFriendlies | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Dominican RepublicFriendlies | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| BrazilFriendlies | Away | 2–6 | Lost | |
| South AfricaFriendlies | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| South AfricaFriendlies | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Panama’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Kirin Cup — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.