Primera C · Regular Season - 31
El Porvenir1–1Canuelas
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera C
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–1
- 90-minute score
- 1–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 32′J. ArrietaNormal GoalEl Porvenir
- 90+7′J. AriasNormal GoalCanuelas
Cards
- 66′R. De MarioRed CardCanuelas
Events updated
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
El Porvenir vs Canuelas: match review and analysis
El Porvenir vs Canuelas in Primera C on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
El Porvenir recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 15. Canuelas recorded 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | El Porvenir | Canuelas |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 7 |
| Draws | 2 | 0 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
El Porvenir: (1.00 weighted goals scored + 0.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Canuelas: (1.66 weighted goals scored + 1.55 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.61 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
El Porvenir recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo MuñizPrimera C | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Deportivo EspañolPrimera C | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Juventud UnidaPrimera C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Central CordobaPrimera C | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| ClaypolePrimera C | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Central BallesterPrimera C | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| JJ UrquizaPrimera C | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| YupanquiPrimera C | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| FénixPrimera C | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sportivo BarracasPrimera C | Away | 2–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from El Porvenir’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Canuelas recent form
1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FénixPrimera C | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sportivo BarracasPrimera C | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Victoriano ArenasPrimera C | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| LujanPrimera C | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| General LamadridPrimera C | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Leones de RosarioPrimera C | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Estrella Del SurPrimera C | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atletico AtlasPrimera C | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| YupanquiPrimera C | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo MuñizPrimera C | Home | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Canuelas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera C — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berazategui | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 48 |
| 2 | Centro Español | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 31 | 13 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 47 |
| 4 | Lugano | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 35 | 28 | 7 | 46 |
| 5 | Juventud Unida | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 31 | 7 | 45 |
| 6 | Estrella Del Sur | 31 | 11 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 29 | 2 | 45 |
| 7 | Mercedes | 31 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 30 | 24 | 6 | 44 |
| 8 | Victoriano Arenas | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 44 |
| 9 | Puerto Nuevo | 31 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 38 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 36 |
| 11 | JJ Urquiza | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 32 |
| 13 | Leandro N. Alem | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 56 | -26 | 31 |
| 14 | Argentino Rosario | 31 | 4 | 15 | 12 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 27 |
Canuelas are ranked 2 in Group B, with 58 points from 31 games.
El Porvenir are ranked 10 in Group B, with 37 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lujan | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 45 | 22 | 23 | 61 |
| 2 | Canuelas | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 58 |
| 3 | Central Cordoba | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 32 | 22 | 10 | 49 |
| 4 | Deportivo Español | 31 | 11 | 16 | 4 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 49 |
| 5 | Leones de Rosario | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 48 |
| 6 | General Lamadrid | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 40 |
| 7 | Sportivo Barracas | 31 | 11 | 6 | 14 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 39 |
| 8 | Central Ballester | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 9 | Atletico Atlas | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 37 |
| 10 | El Porvenir | 31 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 37 |
| 11 | Yupanqui | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 35 |
| 12 | Fénix | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 34 |
| 13 | Claypole | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 25 | 39 | -14 | 33 |
| 14 | Deportivo Muñiz | 31 | 6 | 11 | 14 | 22 | 36 | -14 | 29 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.