Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2
Ermis Exochi3–1Elassona
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Gamma Ethniki - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–1
- 90-minute score
- 3–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ermis Exochi vs Elassona: match review and analysis
Ermis Exochi vs Elassona in Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Ermis Exochi recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Elassona recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 12 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ermis Exochi | Elassona |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ermis Exochi: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 1.70 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.45 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Elassona: (1.34 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.21 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ermis Exochi recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AnthoupoliGamma Ethniki - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AlexandreiaGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Apollon PontouGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| VeriaGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| PierikosGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Ethnikos Neou KeramidiouGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Away | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Asteras Kard.Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| Apollon PontouGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Akrites SykeonGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| KozaniGamma Ethniki - Group 2 | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Ermis Exochi’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Elassona recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethnikos Neou KeramidiouGamma Ethniki - Group 4 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Ethnikos Neou KeramidiouGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Apollon PontouGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| PanthrakikosGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Away | 1–5 | Lost | |
| Ethnikos Neou KeramidiouGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Apollon PontouGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| PanthrakikosGamma Ethniki - Promotion Group | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Asteras StavrosGamma Ethniki - Group 3 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LamiaGamma Ethniki - Group 3 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TrikalaGamma Ethniki - Group 3 | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Elassona’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ermis Exochi are ranked 3 in Group 4, with 4 points from 2 games.
Elassona are ranked 4 in Group 4, with 3 points from 2 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.