National League - National · Championship Group - 3
Ferrymead Bays1–4Miramar
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League - National
- Venue
- Ferrymead Park
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–4
- 90-minute score
- 1–4
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Ferrymead Bays vs Miramar: match review and analysis
Ferrymead Bays vs Miramar in National League - National on 10 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–4. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Ferrymead Bays recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 15. Miramar recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, with 11 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ferrymead Bays | Miramar |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 4 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ferrymead Bays: (1.26 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Miramar: (1.19 weighted goals scored + 1.36 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ferrymead Bays recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington OlympicNational League - National | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Eastern SuburbsNational League - National | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Cashmere TechnicalFriendlies Clubs | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Nomads UnitedNational League - Southern | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| WanakaNational League - Southern | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Coastal SpiritNational League - Southern | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cashmere TechnicalNational League - Southern | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Dunedin City RoyalsNational League - Southern | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| UniversitiesNational League - Southern | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Christchurch UnitedNational League - Southern | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Ferrymead Bays’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Miramar recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PaysanduSegunda División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Auckland FC 2National League - National | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Sportivo HuracanSegunda División | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Napier City RoversNational League - National | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Uruguay MontevideoSegunda División | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| OrientalSegunda División | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| ColónSegunda División | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FenixSegunda División | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| RentistasSegunda División | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CA River PlateSegunda División | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Miramar’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League - National — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Miramar are ranked 3 in First Division: Championship Group, with 4 points from 2 games.
Ferrymead Bays are ranked 4 in First Division: Championship Group, with 4 points from 2 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 6 |
| 2 | Auckland United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Miramar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Ferrymead Bays | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Auckland City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Eastern Suburbs | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 8 | Napier City Rovers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 9 | Wellington Phoenix II | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -10 | 1 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Birkenhead United | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.