CONMEBOL Libertadores · Semi-finals
FluminensevsPalmeiras
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 15 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- CONMEBOL Libertadores
- Venue
- Estádio do Maracanã
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Fluminense vs Palmeiras: match review and analysis
Fluminense vs Palmeiras in CONMEBOL Libertadores on 15 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Fluminense recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Palmeiras recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 14 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Fluminense | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 18 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Fluminense: (1.92 weighted goals scored + 0.62 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.27 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Palmeiras: (1.35 weighted goals scored + 1.00 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.17 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Fluminense recent form
1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FlamengoSerie A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CoritibaSerie A | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| CorinthiansSerie A | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Atletico-MGSerie A | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| PlatenseCONMEBOL Libertadores | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Vasco DA GamaSerie A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Atletico ParanaenseSerie A | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| RemoSerie A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Independ. RivadaviaCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Fluminense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Palmeiras recent form
1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CorinthiansSerie A | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| BahiaSerie A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| GremioSerie A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Sao PauloSerie A | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| LDU de QuitoCONMEBOL Libertadores | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| BotafogoSerie A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SantosCopa Do Brasil | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MirassolSerie A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| SantosCopa Do Brasil | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Palmeiras’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
CONMEBOL Libertadores — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P. | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Independiente Medellin | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 4 | Cusco | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coquimbo Unido | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 8 |
| 3 | Club Nacional | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Universitario | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 6 |
Fluminense are ranked 2 in Group C, with 8 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Fluminense | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 8 |
| 3 | Bolívar | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Deportivo La Guaira | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U. Catolica | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Barcelona SC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corinthians | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Platense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 3 | Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Penarol | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 |
Palmeiras are ranked 2 in Group F, with 11 points from 6 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 4 | Junior | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LDU de Quito | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Mirassol | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Lanus | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Always Ready | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Rosario Central | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | UCV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 9 |
| 4 | Libertad Asuncion | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.