Premier League · Regular Season - 12
GAP Connah S Quay FC1–0Penybont
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Essity Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont: match review and analysis
GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont in Premier League on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
GAP Connah S Quay FC recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 26 and conceding 6. Penybont recorded 8 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses, with 22 scored and 9 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | GAP Connah S Quay FC | Penybont |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 8 | 8 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 0 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 22 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 9 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
GAP Connah S Quay FC: (2.48 weighted goals scored + 0.91 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.70 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Penybont: (2.40 weighted goals scored + 0.54 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.47 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
GAP Connah S Quay FC recent form
2.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry TownPremier League | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Cardiff METPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Airbus UKPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Flint Town UnitedPremier League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Cambrian & ClydachPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Ammanford AFCPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| TrefelinPremier League | Home | 6–0 | Won | |
| HolywellPremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from GAP Connah S Quay FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Penybont recent form
2.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airbus UKPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Ammanford AFCPremier League | Away | 5–1 | Won | |
| Briton FerryPremier League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| TrefelinPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Cambrian & ClydachPremier League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Flint Town UnitedPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LlandudnoPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Haverfordwest County AFCPremier League | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Caernarfon TownPremier League | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Penybont’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
GAP Connah S Quay FC are ranked 2 in Premier League, with 28 points from 12 games.
Penybont are ranked 3 in Premier League, with 27 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.