Torneo Federal A · Quarter-finals
Gimnasia Chivilcoy1–2Olimpo Bahia Blanca
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Torneo Federal A
- Venue
- Jose Maria Paz
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca: match review and analysis
Gimnasia Chivilcoy vs Olimpo Bahia Blanca in Torneo Federal A on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 9 and conceding 6. Olimpo Bahia Blanca recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 11 scored and 5 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | Olimpo Bahia Blanca |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 9 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 6 | 5 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy: (0.95 weighted goals scored + 0.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 0.52 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.79 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Gimnasia Chivilcoy recent form
0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olimpo Bahia BlancaTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Douglas HaigTorneo Federal A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sol de AméricaTorneo Federal A | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Bartolomé MitreTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Sarmiento de La BandaTorneo Federal A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Defensores de Belgrano VRTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| San Martin FormosaTorneo Federal A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| 9 de Julio RafaelaTorneo Federal A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Sportivo BelgranoTorneo Federal A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Defensores de Belgrano VRTorneo Federal A | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Gimnasia Chivilcoy’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Olimpo Bahia Blanca recent form
1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia ChivilcoyTorneo Federal A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AlvaradoTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CipollettiTorneo Federal A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AtenasTorneo Federal A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Kimberley Mar del PlataTorneo Federal A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Argentino Monte MaízTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Villa MitreTorneo Federal A | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Huracan Las HerasTorneo Federal A | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Juventud AntonianaTorneo Federal A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| SantamarinaTorneo Federal A | Home | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Olimpo Bahia Blanca’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Torneo Federal A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Olimpo Bahia Blanca are ranked 1 in Regular Season, with 31 points from 16 games.
Gimnasia Chivilcoy are ranked 6 in Regular Season, with 27 points from 18 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpo Bahia Blanca | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 2 | Douglas Haig | 18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 31 |
| 3 | Sportivo Belgrano | 18 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 21 | 9 | 12 | 30 |
| 4 | San Martin Formosa | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 25 | 19 | 6 | 30 |
| 5 | Alvarado | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 27 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Chivilcoy | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 27 |
| 7 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 27 |
| 8 | Kimberley Mar del Plata | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 26 |
| 9 | Bartolomé Mitre | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 26 |
| 10 | Sol de América | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 26 |
| 11 | Juventud Antoniana | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
| 12 | Cipolletti | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 25 |
| 13 | Sarmiento de La Banda | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 25 |
| 14 | 9 de Julio Rafaela | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Sportivo Las Parejas | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 24 |
| 16 | Villa Mitre | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 23 |
| 17 | Argentino Monte Maíz | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
| 18 | Atenas | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 | Huracan Las Heras | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 23 |
| 20 | Atletico Escobar | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 22 |
| 21 | Fundacion Amigos | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 21 |
| 22 | Deportivo Rincon | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 19 |
| 23 | San Martín Mendoza | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 19 |
| 24 | Defensores de Vilelas | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 19 |
| 25 | Independiente De Chivilcoy | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 19 |
| 26 | El Linqueño | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 19 |
| 27 | Costa Brava | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 18 |
| 28 | Sol de Mayo | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
| 29 | Boca Unidos | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 18 |
| 30 | Germinal de Rawson | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 18 |
| 31 | Juventud Unida Univ. | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 17 |
| 32 | Tucuman Central | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 17 |
| 33 | Gimnasia Concepción | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 17 |
| 34 | Guillermo Brown | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 17 |
| 35 | Sarmiento Resistencia | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 15 |
| 36 | Santamarina | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 13 |
| 37 | Circulo Deportivo | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 13 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.