Regionalliga - Nordost · Nordost - 12
Greifswalder FCvsErzgebirge Aue
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Regionalliga - Nordost
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue: match review and analysis
Greifswalder FC vs Erzgebirge Aue in Regionalliga - Nordost on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Greifswalder FC recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 14. Erzgebirge Aue recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Greifswalder FC | Erzgebirge Aue |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Greifswalder FC: (2.06 weighted goals scored + 1.65 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.85 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Erzgebirge Aue: (1.55 weighted goals scored + 1.49 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.52 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Greifswalder FC recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BFC DynamoRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LuckenwaldeRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| RSV EintrachtRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Lokomotive LeipzigRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Tasmania BerlinRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| SV Babelsberg 03Regionalliga - Nordost | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BFC PreussenRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AltglienickeRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Hertha BSC IIRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| FSV ZwickauRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Greifswalder FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Erzgebirge Aue recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSG Chemie LeipzigRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| FC Rot-Weiß ErfurtRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Magdeburg IIRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| LuckenwaldeRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Lokomotive LeipzigRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Hertha BSC IIRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| 1899 HoffenheimDFB Pokal | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Chemnitzer FCRegionalliga - Nordost | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BFC PreussenRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BFC DynamoRegionalliga - Nordost | Home | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Erzgebirge Aue’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Regionalliga - Nordost — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Erzgebirge Aue are ranked 6 in Regionalliga: Nordost, with 21 points from 11 games.
Greifswalder FC are ranked 8 in Regionalliga: Nordost, with 19 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 36 | 11 | 25 | 27 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 20 | 26 |
| 3 | BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Hallescher FC | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Erzgebirge Aue | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Magdeburg II | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Hertha BSC II | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 9 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 6 |
| 17 | Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 12 | 29 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 5 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.