Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 6
GuadianavsJerez
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 5 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Guadiana vs Jerez: match review and analysis
Guadiana vs Jerez in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Guadiana recorded 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in the 5 games used here, scoring 2 and conceding 11. Jerez recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 12 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Guadiana | Jerez |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 5 | 10 |
| Wins | 0 | 2 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 4 | 6 |
| Goals scored | 2 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 4 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Guadiana: (0.44 weighted goals scored + 1.70 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.07 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Jerez: (1.04 weighted goals scored + 2.16 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 5 GAMES
Guadiana recent form
0.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. 4 of 5 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AzuagaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Cabeza BueyTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MontijoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| VillafrancaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LlerenenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Guadiana’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded. Only 5 usable previous results were available.
LAST 10 GAMES
Jerez recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AzuagaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CastueraTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Cabeza BueyTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Puebla CalzadaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MontehermosoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 5–1 | Won | |
| VillafrancaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Don BenitoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cabeza BueyTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Santa AmaliaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Jerez’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Jerez are ranked 13 in Group 14, with 4 points from 4 games.
Guadiana are ranked 18 in Group 14, with 1 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Castuera | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Puebla Calzada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Gévora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Amalia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Montijo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Cabeza Buey | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Jerez | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Jaraíz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Quintana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.