National League · Regular Season - 12
Harrogate Town3–0AFC Hornchurch
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
Match Finished
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- National League
- Venue
- Exercise Stadium
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 3–0
- 90-minute score
- 3–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch: match review and analysis
Harrogate Town vs AFC Hornchurch in National League on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 3–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Harrogate Town recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 15. AFC Hornchurch recorded 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses, with 11 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Harrogate Town | AFC Hornchurch |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 0 |
| Losses | 3 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 20 | 11 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 6 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Harrogate Town: (2.08 weighted goals scored + 1.66 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.87 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
AFC Hornchurch: (0.96 weighted goals scored + 1.43 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.20 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Harrogate Town recent form
2.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HartlepoolNational League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| EastleighNational League | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Boreham WoodNational League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| AFC FyldeNational League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| TamworthNational League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| ScunthorpeNational League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| GatesheadNational League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Aldershot TownNational League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BarrowNational League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| WealdstoneNational League | Away | 3–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Harrogate Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
AFC Hornchurch recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot TownNational League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| AltrinchamNational League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| ScunthorpeNational League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| WorthingNational League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| FC Halifax TownNational League | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ipswich Town U21National League Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Forest GreenNational League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Boston UnitedNational League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| WokingNational League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CarlisleNational League | Away | 1–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from AFC Hornchurch’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
National League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Harrogate Town are ranked 2 in Conference, with 25 points from 12 games.
AFC Hornchurch are ranked 12 in Conference, with 18 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boreham Wood | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 17 | 11 | 25 |
| 3 | Southend | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 29 | 18 | 11 | 24 |
| 4 | Yeovil Town | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Worthing | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Altrincham | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 21 |
| 7 | AFC Fylde | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Kidderminster Harriers | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Barrow | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 18 |
| 10 | Aldershot Town | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Sutton Utd | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 18 |
| 12 | AFC Hornchurch | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -6 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Halifax Town | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 17 |
| 14 | Carlisle | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 16 |
| 15 | Woking | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Forest Green | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 15 |
| 17 | Eastleigh | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 15 |
| 18 | Tamworth | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 28 | -8 | 14 |
| 19 | Wealdstone | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 12 |
| 20 | Boston United | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 12 |
| 21 | Scunthorpe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 10 |
| 22 | Hartlepool | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 23 | Solihull Moors | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 30 | -17 | 7 |
| 24 | Gateshead | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 27 | -20 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.