Premier League · Regular Season - 13
Haverfordwest County AFCvsCaernarfon Town
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Premier League
- Venue
- Bridge Meadow Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town: match review and analysis
Haverfordwest County AFC vs Caernarfon Town in Premier League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Haverfordwest County AFC recorded 3 wins, 1 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 7 and conceding 14. Caernarfon Town recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 32 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Haverfordwest County AFC | Caernarfon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 7 | 32 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Haverfordwest County AFC: (0.74 weighted goals scored + 1.15 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.95 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Caernarfon Town: (3.07 weighted goals scored + 1.22 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.14 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Haverfordwest County AFC recent form
0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flint Town UnitedPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Cardiff METPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| HolywellPremier League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Briton FerryPremier League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| GAP Connah S Quay FCPremier League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TrefelinPremier League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| LlandudnoPremier League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cambrian & ClydachPremier League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| PenybontPremier League | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Haverfordwest County AFC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Caernarfon Town recent form
3.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry TownPremier League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Cardiff METPremier League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Cambrian & ClydachPremier League | Home | 9–1 | Won | |
| LlandudnoPremier League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Ammanford AFCPremier League | Away | 5–0 | Won | |
| Flint Town UnitedPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| The New SaintsPremier League | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| HolywellPremier League | Away | 5–3 | Won | |
| TrefelinPremier League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Colwyn BayPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Caernarfon Town’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Premier League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Caernarfon Town are ranked 5 in Premier League, with 23 points from 12 games.
Haverfordwest County AFC are ranked 12 in Premier League, with 10 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 38 | 5 | 33 | 34 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 8 | 20 | 28 |
| 3 | Penybont | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 27 |
| 4 | Barry Town | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 25 |
| 5 | Caernarfon Town | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 23 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 15 | 6 | 22 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 32 | -11 | 18 |
| 10 | Llandudno | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 12 |
| 12 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 10 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 8 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 32 | -23 | 6 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 30 | -25 | 3 |
| 16 | Holywell | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 13 | 38 | -25 | 2 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.