III Liga - Group 4 · Group IV - 12
Hetman ZamoscvsCzarni Połaniec
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- III Liga - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
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Cards
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Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec: match review and analysis
Hetman Zamosc vs Czarni Połaniec in III Liga - Group 4 on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Hetman Zamosc recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 19. Czarni Połaniec recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, with 15 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Hetman Zamosc | Czarni Połaniec |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 5 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 3 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 15 |
| Goals conceded | 19 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Hetman Zamosc: (1.99 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.72 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Czarni Połaniec: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 1.94 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.74 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Hetman Zamosc recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chełmianka ChełmIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| KSZO 1929III Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Wisła Kraków IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 3–3 | Draw | |
| NaprzódIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Moravia MorawicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Wiślanie JaśkowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Korona Kielce IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Star StarachowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Podlasie Biała PodlaskaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Hetman Zamosc’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Czarni Połaniec recent form
1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KSZO 1929III Liga - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Wisła Kraków IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| NaprzódIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Moravia MorawicaIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Pogoń-Sokół LubaczówIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Wiślanie JaśkowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Korona Kielce IIIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 4–3 | Won | |
| Star StarachowiceIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Podlasie Biała PodlaskaIII Liga - Group 4 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Siarka TarnobrzegIII Liga - Group 4 | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Czarni Połaniec’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
III Liga - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Czarni Połaniec are ranked 6 in Group IV, with 20 points from 11 games.
Hetman Zamosc are ranked 8 in Group IV, with 14 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 27 |
| 2 | Wisłoka Dębica | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 22 |
| 3 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | KSZO 1929 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 20 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 21 | 6 | 20 |
| 6 | Czarni Połaniec | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 20 |
| 7 | Jarosław | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Hetman Zamosc | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Busko-Zdroj | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Sokół Kolb. | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Wisła Kraków II | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 12 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 11 |
| 15 | Star Starachowice | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 11 |
| 16 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | -9 | 8 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.