Liga Pro · Championship Group - 2
Independiente del VallevsAucas
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 10 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga Pro
- Venue
- Estadio Banco De Guayaquil
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: match review and analysis
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas in Liga Pro on 10 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Independiente del Valle recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 13. Aucas recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 9 scored and 7 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Independiente del Valle | Aucas |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 7 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Independiente del Valle: (1.85 weighted goals scored + 0.73 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.29 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Aucas: (0.76 weighted goals scored + 1.30 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.03 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Independiente del Valle recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gualaceo SCCopa Ecuador | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LibertadLiga Pro | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| FlamengoCONMEBOL Libertadores | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MacaraLiga Pro | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Barcelona SCLiga Pro | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Deportes TolimaCONMEBOL Libertadores | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Leones del NorteLiga Pro | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Deportes TolimaCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Independiente del Valle’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Aucas recent form
0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacaraLiga Pro | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Manta FCLiga Pro | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Barcelona SCLiga Pro | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LibertadLiga Pro | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| LDU de QuitoCopa Ecuador | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Delfin SCLiga Pro | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| LDU de QuitoLiga Pro | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| La UniónCopa Ecuador | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Leones del NorteLiga Pro | Home | 3–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Aucas’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga Pro — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Independiente del Valle are ranked 1 in Liga Pro: Regular season, with 74 points from 30 games.
Aucas are ranked 4 in Liga Pro: Regular season, with 50 points from 30 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
Independiente del Valle are ranked 1 in Liga Pro: Championship Group, with 74 points from 30 games.
Aucas are ranked 4 in Liga Pro: Championship Group, with 50 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 44 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 35 | 3 | 47 |
| 8 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 9 | Leones del Norte | 32 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 32 | 36 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 39 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 31 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 29 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 24 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.