Primera A · Clausura - 13
Independiente Medellin0–1Santa Fe
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 6 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsLost
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera A
- Venue
- Estadio Metropolitano Ciudad de Itagüí
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 87′
Cards
- 30′Alexis ZapataYellow CardSanta FeFoul
- 35′Pablo Eduardo Repetto AquinoYellow CardSanta FeDissent
- 38′Keiner David Klinger VasquezYellow CardIndependiente MedellinFoul
- 43′Agustín MarteganiYellow CardIndependiente MedellinDissent
- 48′Jader ObrianYellow CardSanta FeFoul
- 52′Emanuel OliveraYellow CardSanta FeFoul
- 58′Luis EscorciaYellow CardIndependiente MedellinFoul
- 73′Daniel TorresYellow CardSanta FeFoul
- 90+1′Didier MorenoYellow CardIndependiente MedellinFoul
Events updated
Lineups
Independiente Medellin
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: L. Perea
Starting XI
- 1S. IchazoG
- 30H. PalaciosD
- 39L. EscorciaD
- 19A. SimarraD
- 26E. MenaD
- 6D. MorenoM
- 14B. PerlazaM
- 34K. KlingerM
- 21A. MarteganiM
- 20J. MontañoM
- 11Y. GonzálezF
Substitutes
Santa Fe
Formation: 4-4-1-1
Coach: P. Repetto
Starting XI
- 1A. MosqueraG
- 13H. PalaciosD
- 18E. OliveraD
- 3V. MorenoD
- 32C. MaflaD
- 77J. ObrianM
- 16D. TorresM
- 7J. TorresM
- 10A. ZapataM
- 9F. FagúndezM
- 19N. BustosF
Substitutes
- 39Cristhian PortocarreroM
- 11H. RodallegaF
- 15I. ScarpetaD
- 38Jimmy MartínezF
- 17M. LoveraF
- 21E. MurilloM
- 43J. CaicedoD
- 12W. AsprillaG
- 6K. ToscanoF
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: match review and analysis
Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe in Primera A on 6 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Independiente Medellin recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 14. Santa Fe recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses, with 14 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Independiente Medellin | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 5 | 4 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 3 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 14 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Independiente Medellin: (1.79 weighted goals scored + 1.09 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.44 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Santa Fe: (1.45 weighted goals scored + 1.46 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.46 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Independiente Medellin recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| JaguaresPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| BucaramangaPrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ChicoPrimera A | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Deportivo PastoCopa Colombia | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Deportivo PereiraPrimera A | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| CucutaPrimera A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Deportes TolimaPrimera A | Away | 3–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Independiente Medellin’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Santa Fe recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo PereiraPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Union MagdalenaCopa Colombia | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Deportivo CaliPrimera A | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Alianza ValleduparPrimera A | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Deportes TolimaPrimera A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Vasco DA GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| MillonariosPrimera A | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Santa Fe’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Santa Fe are ranked 7 in Apertura, with 29 points from 19 games.
Independiente Medellin are ranked 11 in Apertura, with 26 points from 19 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
Santa Fe are ranked 5 in Clausura, with 22 points from 12 games.
Independiente Medellin are ranked 7 in Clausura, with 20 points from 12 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 11 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.