UEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2
JagielloniavsArarat-Armenia
RealScored · Match preview
Match prediction · 15 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- UEFA Europa League
- Venue
- Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia: match review and analysis
Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia in UEFA Europa League on 15 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Jagiellonia recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 19 and conceding 18. Ararat-Armenia recorded 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 17 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Jagiellonia | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 5 |
| Draws | 0 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 19 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Jagiellonia: (1.84 weighted goals scored + 0.95 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.40 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Ararat-Armenia: (1.96 weighted goals scored + 1.88 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.92 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Jagiellonia recent form
1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Polonia WarszawaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Suduva MarijampoleFriendlies Clubs | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Slask WroclawEkstraklasa | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Lech PoznanEkstraklasa | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa | Away | 5–2 | Won | |
| FC Iberia 1999UEFA Europa League | Away | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Jagiellonia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Ararat-Armenia recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlashkertPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AraratFriendlies Clubs | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| ShirakPremier League | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Sparta PrahaUEFA Europa League | Home | 1–4 | Lost | |
| SyunikPremier League | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| AraratPremier League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Pyunik YerevanPremier League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa League | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| SardarapatPremier League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Universitatea CraiovaUEFA Europa League | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ararat-Armenia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
UEFA Europa League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Jagiellonia are ranked 21 in UEFA Europa League, with 0 points from 1 games.
Ararat-Armenia are ranked 33 in UEFA Europa League, with 0 points from 1 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 3 | Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Benfica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Bayer Leverkusen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | OFI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bournemouth | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Torreense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Sunderland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Omonia Nicosia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 19 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Anderlecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Lillestrom | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 28 | Celtic | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 29 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 30 | AC Milan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 31 | Celje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 34 | Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
| 35 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 |
| 36 | NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.