Primera A · Clausura - 14
JaguaresvsDeportes Tolima
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Primera A
- Venue
- Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: match review and analysis
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima in Primera A on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Jaguares recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 18. Deportes Tolima recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with 8 scored and 10 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Jaguares | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 2 |
| Draws | 4 | 5 |
| Losses | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 18 | 10 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Jaguares: (1.15 weighted goals scored + 0.97 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.06 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Deportes Tolima: (0.75 weighted goals scored + 1.82 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.28 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Jaguares recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas DoradasPrimera A | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Alianza ValleduparPrimera A | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Independiente MedellinPrimera A | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| JuniorPrimera A | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| America de CaliPrimera A | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| ChicoPrimera A | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Once CaldasPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Internacional de BogotaPrimera A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Atletico NacionalPrimera A | Home | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Jaguares’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Deportes Tolima recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico NacionalPrimera A | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| ChicoPrimera A | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Fortaleza FCPrimera A | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| America de CaliPrimera A | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Once CaldasPrimera A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Santa FePrimera A | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| LlanerosPrimera A | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CucutaPrimera A | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Independiente del ValleCONMEBOL Libertadores | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| BucaramangaPrimera A | Home | 0–0 | Draw |
Scores shown from Deportes Tolima’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Primera A — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Deportes Tolima are ranked 6 in Apertura, with 31 points from 19 games.
Jaguares are ranked 16 in Apertura, with 18 points from 19 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 20 | 40 |
| 2 | Junior | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 35 |
| 3 | Deportivo Pasto | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 25 | 4 | 34 |
| 4 | America de Cali | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 5 | Once Caldas | 19 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 31 | 22 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Deportes Tolima | 19 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 31 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 28 |
| 9 | Deportivo Cali | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 27 |
| 10 | Millonarios | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 8 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 26 |
| 12 | Águilas Doradas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Bucaramanga | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 23 |
| 14 | Llaneros | 19 | 4 | 10 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 22 |
| 15 | Fortaleza FC | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 16 | Jaguares | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 18 |
| 17 | Alianza Valledupar | 19 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 17 |
| 18 | Chico | 19 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 17 |
| 19 | Cucuta | 19 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 35 | -13 | 16 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pereira | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 32 | -17 | 10 |
Deportes Tolima are ranked 8 in Clausura, with 20 points from 13 games.
Jaguares are ranked 20 in Clausura, with 7 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | America de Cali | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 7 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | Deportivo Cali | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 24 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 23 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
| 5 | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Águilas Doradas | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 | Cucuta | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 15 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 14 |
| 12 | Once Caldas | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Internacional de Bogota | 13 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 | Chico | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 12 |
| 15 | Alianza Valledupar | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 26 | -12 | 12 |
| 16 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 17 | Junior | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pasto | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | -9 | 9 |
| 19 | Deportivo Pereira | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 8 |
| 20 | Jaguares | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 7 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.