Kirin Cup · Final
Japan2–1New Zealand
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 5 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Kirin Cup
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 2–1
- 90-minute score
- 2–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
- 28′Ayase UedaNormal GoalJapan
- 32′
- 71′
Cards
- 76′Junya ItoYellow CardJapanArgument
- 76′Elijah JustYellow CardNew ZealandFoul
Events updated
Lineups
Japan
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: H. Moriyasu
Starting XI
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 3A. SekoD
- 25J. SuzukiD
- 21H. ItoD
- 2S. NakanoM
- 24K. SanoM
- 15D. KamadaM
- 10R. DōanM
- 20T. KuboM
- 11D. MaedaM
- 18A. UedaF
Substitutes
- 9K. GotoF
- 14J. ItoF
- 12L. KokuboG
- 22H. ArakiD
- 19K. MatsukiM
- 32H. MochizukiD
- 13Keito NakamuraF
- 29S. SaitoF
- 28K. SanoM
- 26K. ShiogaiF
- 7Y. SomaF
- 8Y. SuzukiM
- 6S. TanakaM
- 17A. TanakaM
- 23T. HayakawaG
New Zealand
Formation: 4-1-4-1
Coach: D. Bazeley
Starting XI
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 5M. BoxallD
- 16G. StangerD
- 4Tyler BindonD
- 19B. OldD
- 8M. StamenićM
- 17D. InghamM
- 14A. RuferM
- 6L. BaylissM
- 11E. JustM
- 9C. WoodF
Substitutes
- 23O. Parker-PriceM
- 24M. DyerF
- 2C. ElliotD
- 22H. GrayG
- 21J. RandallF
- 7L. RogersonF
- 3S. SuttonD
- 15B. TuilomaD
- 10S. UkichM
- 18B. WaineF
- 13D. WilkinsD
- 12M. WoudG
G: goalkeeper · D: defender · M: midfielder · F: forward. Select a player to view their profile.
Lineups updated
Real Scored match analysis
Japan vs New Zealand: match review and analysis
Japan vs New Zealand in Kirin Cup on 5 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 2–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Japan recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 7. New Zealand recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 14 scored and 21 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Japan | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 3 |
| Losses | 1 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 7 | 21 |
| Over 1.5 games | 6 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Japan: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 1.87 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.71 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
New Zealand: (1.48 weighted goals scored + 0.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.10 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Japan recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EcuadorKirin Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VenezuelaFriendlies | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| UruguayFriendlies | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| BrazilWorld Cup | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| SwedenWorld Cup | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TunisiaWorld Cup | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| NetherlandsWorld Cup | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| IcelandFriendlies | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| EnglandFriendlies | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ScotlandFriendlies | Away | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Japan’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
New Zealand recent form
1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PanamaKirin Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| ChinaFriendlies | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| PalestineFriendlies | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| BelgiumWorld Cup | Home | 1–5 | Lost | |
| EgyptWorld Cup | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| IranWorld Cup | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| EnglandFriendlies | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| HaitiFriendlies | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| ChileFIFA Series | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| FinlandFIFA Series | Home | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from New Zealand’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Kirin Cup — current table
No league table is currently available for this competition and season. Some cup rounds and friendlies do not have standings.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.