Ettan - Norra · Norra - 26
JärfällavsUmeå FC
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Ettan - Norra
- Venue
- Jarfallavallen
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Järfälla vs Umeå FC: match review and analysis
Järfälla vs Umeå FC in Ettan - Norra on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Järfälla recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 8 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 12 and conceding 24. Umeå FC recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 16 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Järfälla | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 1 | 5 |
| Draws | 1 | 1 |
| Losses | 8 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 12 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 24 | 16 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Järfälla: (1.44 weighted goals scored + 1.38 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.41 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Umeå FC: (1.60 weighted goals scored + 2.37 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.99 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Järfälla recent form
1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| StocksundEttan - Norra | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AFC EskilstunaEttan - Norra | Home | 2–4 | Lost | |
| PiteåEttan - Norra | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| KarlbergEttan - Norra | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Gefle IFEttan - Norra | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| FBK KarlstadEttan - Norra | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Assyriska FFEttan - Norra | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Stockholm InternazionaleEttan - Norra | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| SollentunaEttan - Norra | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| IF KarlstadEttan - Norra | Home | 1–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from Järfälla’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Umeå FC recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby TalangEttan - Norra | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| FBK KarlstadEttan - Norra | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| StocksundEttan - Norra | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| PiteåEttan - Norra | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Stockholm InternazionaleEttan - Norra | Home | 0–4 | Lost | |
| ArlandaEttan - Norra | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| VasalundEttan - Norra | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| EnköpingEttan - Norra | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Gefle IFEttan - Norra | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| AFC EskilstunaEttan - Norra | Home | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Umeå FC’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Ettan - Norra — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Umeå FC are ranked 9 in North, with 32 points from 25 games.
Järfälla are ranked 15 in North, with 19 points from 25 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockholm Internazionale | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 20 | 40 | 57 |
| 2 | Arlanda | 25 | 14 | 6 | 5 | 46 | 28 | 18 | 48 |
| 3 | AFC Eskilstuna | 25 | 14 | 5 | 6 | 47 | 34 | 13 | 47 |
| 4 | Hammarby Talang | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 51 | 25 | 26 | 45 |
| 5 | FBK Karlstad | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 43 |
| 6 | Enköping | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 42 |
| 7 | IF Karlstad | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 41 |
| 8 | Assyriska FF | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 32 |
| 9 | Umeå FC | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Karlberg | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 32 |
| 11 | Gefle IF | 25 | 9 | 3 | 13 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 30 |
| 12 | Sollentuna | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 27 | 36 | -9 | 27 |
| 13 | Vasalund | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 27 |
| 14 | Piteå | 25 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 22 |
| 15 | Järfälla | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 19 |
| 16 | Stocksund | 26 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 45 | 64 | -19 | 15 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.