J1 League · Regular Season - 9
JEF United ChibavsV-varen Nagasaki
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 11 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- J1 League
- Venue
- Fukuda Denshi Arena
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki: match review and analysis
JEF United Chiba vs V-varen Nagasaki in J1 League on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
JEF United Chiba recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 11 and conceding 16. V-varen Nagasaki recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 13 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | JEF United Chiba | V-varen Nagasaki |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 11 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 9 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
JEF United Chiba: (1.12 weighted goals scored + 1.61 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.37 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
V-varen Nagasaki: (1.11 weighted goals scored + 1.54 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.32 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
JEF United Chiba recent form
1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano OkayamaEmperor Cup | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Jubilo IwataJ-League Cup | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Shimizu S-pulseJ1 League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Kamatamare SanukiJ-League Cup | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Gamba OsakaJ1 League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Azul Claro NumazuEmperor Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FC TokyoJ1 League | Away | 0–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from JEF United Chiba’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
V-varen Nagasaki recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulseEmperor Cup | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Gainare TottoriJ-League Cup | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cerezo OsakaJ1 League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Nagoya GrampusJ1 League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Kochi UnitedJ-League Cup | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Vissel KobeJ1 League | Away | 1–3 | Lost | |
| Gamba OsakaJ1 League | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| FC TokyoJ1 League | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Ehime FCEmperor Cup | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Kashiwa ReysolJ1 League | Away | 2–4 | Lost |
Scores shown from V-varen Nagasaki’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
J1 League — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
V-varen Nagasaki are ranked 15 in J-League, with 8 points from 8 games.
JEF United Chiba are ranked 20 in J-League, with 4 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Vissel Kobe | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Kashima | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 16 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 8 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Gamba Osaka | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.