Juventude ÉvoravsAljustrelense

Real Scored match analysis

Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense: match review and analysis

Juventude Évora vs Aljustrelense in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group D on 11 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.

Juventude Évora recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 20 and conceding 11. Aljustrelense recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses, with 8 scored and 21 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Juventude Évora: (1.88 weighted goals scored + 2.07 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.97 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Aljustrelense: (0.76 weighted goals scored + 1.24 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.00 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.