J1 League · Regular Season - 9
KashimavsGamba Osaka
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- J1 League
- Venue
- Mercari Stadium
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka: match review and analysis
Kashima vs Gamba Osaka in J1 League on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Kashima recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 26 and conceding 15. Gamba Osaka recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses, with 17 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Kashima | Gamba Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 1 | 3 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 15 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Kashima: (2.85 weighted goals scored + 1.60 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.23 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Gamba Osaka: (1.92 weighted goals scored + 1.44 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.68 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Kashima recent form
2.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ventforet KofuEmperor Cup | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Kawasaki FrontaleJ1 League | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Newcastle JetsAFC Champions League Elite | Home | 7–1 | Won | |
| Vissel KobeJ1 League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| UrawaJ1 League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Mito HollyhockJ1 League | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| Tokyo VerdyJ1 League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Suzuka UnlimitedEmperor Cup | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Avispa FukuokaJ1 League | Home | 3–2 | Won | |
| Nagoya GrampusJ1 League | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from Kashima’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Gamba Osaka recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa ReysolJ-League Cup | Away | 3–3 | Draw | |
| Tokushima VortisEmperor Cup | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| Vissel KobeJ1 League | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Công An Nhân DânAFC Champions League Elite | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| FC TokyoJ1 League | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| JEF United ChibaJ1 League | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| V-varen NagasakiJ1 League | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Sanfrecce HiroshimaJ1 League | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Biwako ShigaEmperor Cup | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Nagoya GrampusJ1 League | Away | 1–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Gamba Osaka’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
J1 League — current table
Season 2027 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Kashima are ranked 8 in J-League, with 13 points from 8 games.
Gamba Osaka are ranked 16 in J-League, with 6 points from 8 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Kashiwa Reysol | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 18 |
| 3 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 17 |
| 4 | Machida Zelvia | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 5 | FC Tokyo | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Kashima | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | Urawa | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Cerezo Osaka | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | Kyoto Sanga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 8 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 8 |
| 16 | Gamba Osaka | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 6 |
| 17 | Nagoya Grampus | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 6 |
| 18 | Avispa Fukuoka | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 4 |
| 19 | Tokyo Verdy | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 4 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.