Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5
Lagun Onak1–2Aretxabaleta
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 3 October 2026
Match Finished
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or awayWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 4
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–2
- 90-minute score
- 1–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta: match review and analysis
Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 on 3 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or away.
Lagun Onak recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 12. Aretxabaleta recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, with 12 scored and 17 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Lagun Onak | Aretxabaleta |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 3 |
| Draws | 4 | 2 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 12 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 17 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Lagun Onak: (1.21 weighted goals scored + 1.42 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.31 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Aretxabaleta: (1.03 weighted goals scored + 1.01 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours a decisive result. Either side winning satisfies this selection; a draw does not. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Lagun Onak recent form
1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SanturtziTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| San IgnacioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Real Sociedad IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LeioaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| BeasainFriendlies Clubs | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| DerioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| DerioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| LeioaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Eibar IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AñorgaTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Lagun Onak’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Aretxabaleta recent form
1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DerioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| DurangoTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| BeasainTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| TouringTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| ZamudioTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| SanturtziTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Real Sociedad IIITercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–5 | Lost | |
| Pasaia KETercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Lagun OnakTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| DeustoTercera División RFEF - Group 4 | Away | 0–3 | Lost |
Scores shown from Aretxabaleta’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Aretxabaleta are ranked 7 in Tercera: Group 4, with 8 points from 5 games.
Lagun Onak are ranked 9 in Tercera: Group 4, with 7 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aurrerá Vitoria | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Derio | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Pasaia KE | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Leioa | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad III | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Touring | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Aretxabaleta | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Deportivo Alavés III | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Lagun Onak | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | Durango | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Erandio | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | San Ignacio | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | R. Union B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Sodupe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Beasain | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Santurtzi | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 3 |
| 18 | Amurrio Club | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.