USL Championship · Group Stage
Las Vegas Lights1–0San Antonio
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- USL Championship
- Venue
- Cashman Field
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 1–0
- 90-minute score
- 1–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio: match review and analysis
Las Vegas Lights vs San Antonio in USL Championship on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 1–0. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Las Vegas Lights recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 12. San Antonio recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses, with 5 scored and 15 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Las Vegas Lights | San Antonio |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 3 | 2 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 4 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 5 |
| Goals conceded | 12 | 15 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Las Vegas Lights: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 1.61 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.33 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
San Antonio: (0.46 weighted goals scored + 1.33 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.89 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Las Vegas Lights recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Hartford AthleticUSL Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Orange County SCUSL Championship | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Charleston BatteryUSL Championship | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| LexingtonUSL Championship | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| BrooklynUSL Championship | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Miami FCUSL Championship | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Phoenix RisingUSL Championship | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Las Vegas Lights’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
San Antonio recent form
0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SV Darmstadt 98Friendlies Clubs | Home | 0–7 | Lost | |
| Tampa Bay RowdiesUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Sacramento RepublicUSL Championship | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Colorado SpringsUSL Championship | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Louisville CityUSL League One Cup | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| FC TulsaUSL Championship | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| New Mexico UnitedUSL Championship | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Oakland RootsUSL Championship | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| El Paso LocomotiveUSL Championship | Home | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Miami FCUSL League One Cup | Home | 2–1 | Won |
Scores shown from San Antonio’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
USL Championship — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 33 | 20 | 13 | 47 |
| 3 | Charleston Battery | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 46 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 39 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 29 | 10 | 38 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 38 |
| 7 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 37 |
| 8 | Miami FC | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 36 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 33 | 33 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | Loudoun United | 26 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 24 |
| 11 | Birmingham Legion | 26 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 36 | 43 | -7 | 23 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 27 | 55 | -28 | 18 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 27 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 32 | 73 | -41 | 14 |
San Antonio are ranked 8 in USL Championship, with 38 points from 27 games.
Las Vegas Lights are ranked 9 in USL Championship, with 36 points from 27 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | El Paso Locomotive | 27 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 47 |
| 2 | New Mexico United | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 46 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 37 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| 4 | Lexington | 27 | 13 | 4 | 10 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 43 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 42 |
| 6 | Colorado Springs | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 | 37 | 3 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 39 |
| 8 | San Antonio | 27 | 9 | 11 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 9 | Las Vegas Lights | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 27 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 11 | Phoenix Rising | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 36 | 40 | -4 | 33 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 27 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 21 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.