Liga de Expansión MX · Apertura - 11
Leones Negros UDG6–3Dorados
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga de Expansión MX
- Venue
- Estadio Jalisco
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 6–3
- 90-minute score
- 6–3
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados: match review and analysis
Leones Negros UDG vs Dorados in Liga de Expansión MX on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 6–3. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Leones Negros UDG recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 21 and conceding 13. Dorados recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, with 17 scored and 14 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Leones Negros UDG | Dorados |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 3 |
| Draws | 2 | 4 |
| Losses | 2 | 3 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 17 |
| Goals conceded | 13 | 14 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Leones Negros UDG: (1.95 weighted goals scored + 1.35 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.65 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Dorados: (1.66 weighted goals scored + 1.35 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.50 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Leones Negros UDG recent form
2.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul HidalgoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| CA La PazLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| PiratasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 4–0 | Won | |
| Correcaminos UatLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–3 | Lost | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 4–2 | Won |
Scores shown from Leones Negros UDG’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Dorados recent form
1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DurangoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| CDS Tampico MaderoLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CancúnLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| TapatíoLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| TepatitlánLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| MonarcasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Venados FCLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–4 | Lost | |
| TlaxcalaLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Mineros de ZacatecasLiga de Expansión MX | Home | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Alebrijes de OaxacaLiga de Expansión MX | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Dorados’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga de Expansión MX — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Leones Negros UDG are ranked 1 in Primera A: Apertura, with 23 points from 11 games.
Dorados are ranked 11 in Primera A: Apertura, with 13 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leones Negros UDG | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 23 |
| 2 | Monarcas | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 12 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | CA La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Venados FC | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 5 | 19 |
| 5 | Piratas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 6 | 18 |
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Cancún | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Durango | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 17 |
| 9 | Correcaminos Uat | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 14 |
| 11 | Dorados | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Tlaxcala | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 23 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | CDS Tampico Madero | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 11 |
| 14 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 10 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 29 | -21 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.