Liga Pro · Placement Group - 2
LibertadvsLeones del Norte
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 9 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawBased on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Liga Pro
- Venue
- Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
- Status
- Not Started
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Libertad vs Leones del Norte: match review and analysis
Libertad vs Leones del Norte in Liga Pro on 9 October 2026. Compare recent results, goal trends and league positions in this match preview.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Libertad recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 16 and conceding 9. Leones del Norte recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses, with 9 scored and 18 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Libertad | Leones del Norte |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 6 | 2 |
| Draws | 2 | 3 |
| Losses | 2 | 5 |
| Goals scored | 16 | 9 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 18 |
| Over 1.5 games | 7 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Libertad: (1.57 weighted goals scored + 1.59 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.58 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Leones del Norte: (0.90 weighted goals scored + 1.06 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.98 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Libertad recent form
1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EmelecLiga Pro | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Independiente del ValleLiga Pro | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| EmelecLiga Pro | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| AucasLiga Pro | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| MacaraLiga Pro | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Universidad CatolicaLiga Pro | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Orense SCLiga Pro | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro | Away | 2–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Libertad’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Leones del Norte recent form
0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Tecnico UniversitarioLiga Pro | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Mushuc Runa SCLiga Pro | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Orense SCLiga Pro | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| EmelecLiga Pro | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Independiente del ValleLiga Pro | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Manta FCLiga Pro | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| AucasLiga Pro | Away | 0–3 | Lost | |
| Barcelona SCLiga Pro | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| LDU de QuitoCopa Ecuador | Away | 0–6 | Lost |
Scores shown from Leones del Norte’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Liga Pro — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Libertad are ranked 7 in Liga Pro: Regular season, with 41 points from 30 games.
Leones del Norte are ranked 8 in Liga Pro: Regular season, with 39 points from 30 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Universidad Catolica | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 51 |
| 3 | Macara | 30 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 41 | 33 | 8 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 28 | 5 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 30 | 13 | 7 | 10 | 31 | 24 | 7 | 46 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 44 |
| 7 | Libertad | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33 | 34 | -1 | 41 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 39 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 39 |
| 10 | Emelec | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 39 |
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 38 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 25 | 37 | -12 | 36 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 30 | 10 | 2 | 18 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 32 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 28 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 30 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 21 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | 40 | 74 |
| 2 | Macara | 31 | 16 | 6 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 54 |
| 3 | Universidad Catolica | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 52 | 29 | 23 | 51 |
| 4 | Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 50 |
| 5 | LDU de Quito | 31 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 25 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Barcelona SC | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 44 |
Libertad are ranked 7 in Liga Pro: Placement Group, with 44 points from 31 games.
Leones del Norte are ranked 8 in Liga Pro: Placement Group, with 40 points from 31 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Libertad | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 44 |
| 8 | Leones del Norte | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Guayaquil City FC | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 40 |
| 10 | Emelec | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 39 |
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mushuc Runa SC | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
| 13 | Orense SC | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 33 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 31 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 33 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 29 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 31 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 24 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.