Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Group 14 - 5
LlerenensevsSanta Amalia
Real Scored · Match preview
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Postponed
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawPostponed
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Postponed
- Score
- Not started
- 90-minute score
- —
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Llerenense vs Santa Amalia: match review and analysis
Llerenense vs Santa Amalia in Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 on 4 October 2026. Match status: Match Postponed.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Llerenense recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 10 and conceding 11. Santa Amalia recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, with 8 scored and 11 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Llerenense | Santa Amalia |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 4 | 1 |
| Draws | 3 | 5 |
| Losses | 3 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 10 | 8 |
| Goals conceded | 11 | 11 |
| Over 1.5 games | 5 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Llerenense: (1.05 weighted goals scored + 0.99 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Santa Amalia: (0.82 weighted goals scored + 0.83 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.83 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Llerenense recent form
1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CD ZafraTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| JaraízTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| GuadianaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| CalamonteTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Puebla CalzadaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| JaraízTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| MontehermosoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| VillanovenseTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cabeza BueyTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–1 | Lost |
Scores shown from Llerenense’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Santa Amalia recent form
0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MoraloTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Atlético PueblonuevoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| QuintanaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| PlasenciaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| MontijoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| MoraloTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| DiocesanoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–0 | Draw | |
| VillafrancaTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Home | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Don BenitoTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| JerezTercera División RFEF - Group 14 | Away | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Santa Amalia’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Llerenense are ranked 3 in Group 14, with 10 points from 4 games.
Santa Amalia are ranked 9 in Group 14, with 6 points from 4 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 15 |
| 2 | Moralo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 11 |
| 3 | Llerenense | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Castuera | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Puebla Calzada | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 6 | Gévora | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
| 7 | CD Zafra | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Villanovense | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Santa Amalia | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Montijo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Cabeza Buey | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Jerez | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 4 |
| 14 | Quintana | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Villafranca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Plasencia | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 11 | -9 | 1 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.