Lokomotiv Mezdra2–3Pirin Blagoevgrad

Real Scored match analysis

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Pirin Blagoevgrad: match review and analysis

Lokomotiv Mezdra vs Pirin Blagoevgrad in Cup on 4 October 2026 has finished after extra time. The match goal score was 2–3. Review the team form and league context below.

Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.

Lokomotiv Mezdra recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 7. Pirin Blagoevgrad recorded 0 wins, 0 draws and 10 losses, with 3 scored and 28 conceded across 10 games.

Why this selection?

The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.

Lokomotiv Mezdra: (2.34 weighted goals scored + 2.64 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.49 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

Pirin Blagoevgrad: (0.23 weighted goals scored + 0.63 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.43 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.

The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.

Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.