First League · Regular Season - 11
FULL-TIME
Ludogorets5–0Arda Kardzhali
RealScored · Match result
Match prediction · 12 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Home or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- First League
- Venue
- Huvepharma Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 5–0
- 90-minute score
- 5–0
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups are not available yet. Confirmed selections will appear here when available.
RealScored match analysis
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: match review and analysis
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali in First League on 12 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 5–0. Review the team form and league context below.
RealScored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Home or draw.
Ludogorets recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 23 and conceding 9. Arda Kardzhali recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses, with 14 scored and 13 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Ludogorets | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 1 |
| Losses | 0 | 4 |
| Goals scored | 23 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 9 | 13 |
| Over 1.5 games | 10 | 8 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Ludogorets: (2.54 weighted goals scored + 1.56 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 2.05 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Arda Kardzhali: (1.20 weighted goals scored + 0.71 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 0.96 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the home side avoiding defeat. A home win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Ludogorets recent form
2.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 10 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More VarnaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 5–0 | Won | |
| CSM Ramnicu ValceaFriendlies Clubs | Home | 3–0 | Won | |
| Septemvri SofiaFirst League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League | Away | 2–1 | Won | |
| Spartak VarnaFirst League | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Cherno More VarnaFirst League | Away | 3–2 | Won | |
| Botev VratsaFirst League | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Hapoel Tel AvivUEFA Europa Conference League | Home | 2–2 | Draw |
Scores shown from Ludogorets’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Arda Kardzhali recent form
1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFriendlies Clubs | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| Cherno More VarnaFirst League | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| CSKA SofiaFirst League | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Botev PlovdivFirst League | Home | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Botev VratsaFirst League | Home | 2–0 | Won | |
| Lokomotiv PlovdivFirst League | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Lokomotiv SofiaFirst League | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Dunav RuseFirst League | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| CSKA 1948First League | Away | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Slavia SofiaFirst League | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Arda Kardzhali’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
First League — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Ludogorets are ranked 3 in A PFG, with 26 points from 10 games.
Arda Kardzhali are ranked 6 in A PFG, with 17 points from 11 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Levski Sofia | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4 | 19 | 28 |
| 2 | CSKA Sofia | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 27 |
| 3 | Ludogorets | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 7 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Botev Plovdiv | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 3 | 19 |
| 6 | Arda Kardzhali | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 13 |
| 8 | Slavia Sofia | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Botev Vratsa | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 9 |
| 10 | Dunav Ruse | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 8 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Septemvri Sofia | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Cherno More Varna | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 6 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.