Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 5
Malaga City0–1Marbelli
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
Match Finished
This match has finished. Go back home for the latest fixtures →
THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Away or drawWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
- Venue
- To be confirmed
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 0–1
- 90-minute score
- 0–1
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Malaga City vs Marbelli: match review and analysis
Malaga City vs Marbelli in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 0–1. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Away or draw.
Malaga City recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 13 and conceding 21. Marbelli recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses, with 14 scored and 8 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Malaga City | Marbelli |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 2 | 6 |
| Draws | 1 | 2 |
| Losses | 7 | 2 |
| Goals scored | 13 | 14 |
| Goals conceded | 21 | 8 |
| Over 1.5 games | 9 | 7 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Malaga City: (1.32 weighted goals scored + 0.72 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.02 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Marbelli: (1.54 weighted goals scored + 2.05 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.80 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The model favours the away side avoiding defeat. An away win or a draw satisfies this selection. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Malaga City recent form
1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. 9 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MelillaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–2 | Lost | |
| MotrilTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Churriana VegaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–4 | Lost | |
| Almería IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–2 | Lost | |
| Arenas ArmillaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 2–3 | Lost | |
| Polideportivo AlmeríaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Real JaénTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Mancha RealTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 4–1 | Won | |
| Mijas Las LagunasTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 0–4 | Lost | |
| Málaga IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Malaga City’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Marbelli recent form
1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torre del MarTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Huétor VegaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Ciudad de TorredonjimenoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| Mancha RealTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Ciudad de TorredonjimenoTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 2–0 | Won | |
| Granada IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Huétor VegaTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Huétor TájarTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 2–1 | Won | |
| UD Melilla IITercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| MartosTercera División RFEF - Group 9 | Home | 1–2 | Lost |
Scores shown from Marbelli’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Marbelli are ranked 2 in Tercera: Group 9, with 13 points from 5 games.
Malaga City are ranked 18 in Tercera: Group 9, with 0 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Melilla | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 15 |
| 2 | Marbelli | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Arenas Armilla | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Motril | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| 5 | Málaga II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Almería II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 10 |
| 7 | UD San Pedro | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | Granada II | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Churriana Vega | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlético Porcuna | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 |
| 11 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Huétor Vega | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Torre del Mar | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Atletico de Marbella | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 15 | Alhaurino | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Cantoria | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Mancha Real | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2 |
| 18 | Malaga City | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.