FA WSL · Regular Season - 5
Manchester City W4–2Arsenal W
Real Scored · Match result
Match prediction · 4 October 2026
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THE PREDICTION
Our match outlook
Over 1.5 goalsWon
Based on 10 previous home-team games and 10 previous away-team games. Small samples provide less evidence.
Prediction saved
Match information
- Competition
- FA WSL
- Venue
- Manchester Regional Arena
- Status
- Match Finished
- Score
- 4–2
- 90-minute score
- 4–2
- Last updated
Goals and cards
Goals
Match events are not yet available.
Cards
Match events are not yet available.
Lineups
Lineups have not been supplied yet. Confirmed selections appear here when available.
Real Scored match analysis
Manchester City W vs Arsenal W: match review and analysis
Manchester City W vs Arsenal W in FA WSL on 4 October 2026 has finished at full time. The match goal score was 4–2. Review the team form and league context below.
Real Scored brings together the match information, available team results and current standings below. The saved pre-match selection is Over 1.5 goals.
Manchester City W recorded 7 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses in the 10 games used here, scoring 26 and conceding 10. Arsenal W recorded 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 losses, with 13 scored and 6 conceded across 10 games.
| Statistic | Manchester City W | Arsenal W |
|---|---|---|
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Wins | 7 | 5 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 0 | 1 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 13 |
| Goals conceded | 10 | 6 |
| Over 1.5 games | 8 | 5 |
Why this selection?
The calculation combines each team’s recent attacking record with the opposing defence. Newer games receive more weight, and results at the same home or away venue receive extra weight.
Manchester City W: (2.44 weighted goals scored + 0.77 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.60 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
Arsenal W: (1.28 weighted goals scored + 1.04 opponent goals conceded) ÷ 2 gives 1.16 model goals, after bounding the estimate between 0.05 and 6.
The combined scoring outlook makes at least two total goals the strongest of the four options compared. Either team can score those goals. It ranked highest when comparing the three double-chance options with Over 1.5 using a Poisson goal model.
Model goals are estimates from past scores, not shot-based expected goals. These form records were saved with the prediction before kickoff. League position is context below and is not an input to this goal model. Injuries, lineups and odds are not included.
Recent results and goal trends
LAST 10 GAMES
Manchester City W recent form
2.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 8 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid WUEFA Champions League Women | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Charlton Athletic WFA WSL | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Bayern Munich WUEFA Champions League Women | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Liverpool WFA WSL | Home | 4–2 | Won | |
| Aston Villa WFA WSL | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Birmingham City WFA WSL | Home | 3–1 | Won | |
| Brighton WFA Women's Cup | Away | 4–0 | Won | |
| West Ham WFA WSL | Away | 4–1 | Won | |
| Chelsea WFA Women's Cup | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Liverpool WFA WSL | Home | 1–0 | Won |
Scores shown from Manchester City W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LAST 10 GAMES
Arsenal W recent form
1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 of 10 games finished with at least two goals.
| Date | Opponent | Venue | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC WUEFA Champions League Women | Away | 2–2 | Draw | |
| Chelsea WFA WSL | Away | 0–1 | Lost | |
| Køge WUEFA Champions League Women | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Manchester United WFA WSL | Home | 1–1 | Draw | |
| Crystal Palace WFA WSL | Home | 0–0 | Draw | |
| Brighton WFA WSL | Away | 1–0 | Won | |
| Liverpool WFA WSL | Away | 3–1 | Won | |
| Everton WFA WSL | Home | 1–0 | Won | |
| Aston Villa WFA WSL | Away | 3–0 | Won | |
| Brighton WFA WSL | Away | 1–1 | Draw |
Scores shown from Arsenal W’s perspective. Extra time and shootouts are excluded.
LEAGUE CONTEXT
FA WSL — current table
Season 2026 · Latest stored table, updated . Refresh delayed; showing the last available table. This table may include games played after this prediction was made.
Manchester City W are ranked 1 in Super League Women, with 15 points from 5 games.
Arsenal W are ranked 10 in Super League Women, with 5 points from 5 games.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 1 | 11 | 13 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton W | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 7 | Manchester United W | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 7 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 6 |
| 9 | Brighton W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Arsenal W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 5 |
| 11 | West Ham W | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 12 | Aston Villa W | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 2 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 15 | -13 | 0 |
P: played · W: wins · D: draws · L: losses · GF/GA: goals for/against · GD: goal difference · Pts: points. Highlighted rows identify this match’s teams.
About this prediction
We compare each team’s recent goals scored and conceded, giving more weight to recent games and the same home or away venue. A goal model then chooses double chance or Over 1.5 goals. Predictions can change before kickoff and are not guaranteed results. Live scores refresh every 5 seconds.